Future Scenarios for Mobility Innovations and Their Impacts in Cities and Transport Models

Abstract

Cities should try to combine the various conflicting interests in the field of urban mobility aiming to extract the maximum benefits of the different mobility options. Although this task concerns mainly the current situation, cities should also prioritize future mobility measures. The purpose of this paper is to explore how emerging mobility concepts would evolve under future mobility scenarios related to carsharing services, micromobility services, Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) services, Connected Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs), Urban Air Mobility and Mobility-as-a-Service. Two diverging or complementary scenarios have been associated to each concept expected to transform future urban mobility. A Delphi poll has identified the future scenarios related to data sources and transport modelling and assessed the effects that each mobility innovation may have on urban transportation. The impacts of these emerging mobility solutions on transport planning tools and techniques are also investigated and prioritized. Finally, data sharing between operators and policy-makers and the lack of skills among transport planners are rated by the Delphi poll as the most important gaps in terms of transport data sources and barriers that hinder the modelling of the new urban mobility options respectively.