Future Risk of Tourism Pressures under Climate Change: A Case Study in the Three-River-Source National Park

Abstract

Tourism is considered one of the main sources of pressure on the global ecosystem, which is being increasingly affected by climate change. Few studies have evaluated the spatial patterns of tourism pressure that ecosystems will suffer under the changing climate in the future. Considering the Three-River-Source National Park, China, as the study area, we applied statistical and remote sensing techniques to examine the spatial pattern of the risk of tourism pressure in 2070 and 2100 under two climate scenarios: the representative concentration pathway of radiative forcing levels of 8.5 W/m2 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5. The results indicate that regions at high risk of tourism pressure in the study area will expand in the future. Areas with a high risk of tourism pressure in 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario accounted for 6.75% of the entire study area, with the largest area under impact being in the Lancang-River-Source Park, accounting for 20.61% of the sub-park. The distribution density of areas with a high risk of tourism pressure in 2100 is also the highest under RCP8.5 (5.3 points/km2), and the average density of Lancang-River-Source Park will be the highest (16.58 points/km2) among the three sub-parks, suggesting that larger areas of the Three-River-Source National Park will face an increased risk of tourism pressure in the context of future climate change, with the greatest change poised to be in the Lancang-River-Source Park. Tourism pressure management strategies must be implemented in these areas with an increased risk of tourism pressure. This study provides useful insights for managing tourism pressures and improving adaptability under climate change.