Integrated remote sensing and model approach for impact assessment of future climate change on the carbon budget of global forest ecosystems

Abstract

At present, global warming is an indisputable fact, and more and more attention has been paid to the impacts of climate warming on global ecological environments. Forests play increasing significant roles in regulating global carbon balance and mitigating climate change. Therefore, to understand the response mechanisms of the carbon budget of global forest ecosystems to future climate change, an improved version of the FORest ecosystem Carbon budget model for CHiNa (FORCCHN) and future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were applied in this study. The results demonstrated that the global forest ecosystems will play a major role in the carbon sink under the future two climate change scenarios. In particular, the average carbon budget of global forest ecosystems under RCP4.5 scenario was estimated to be 0.017 kg(C)·m−2·yr−1 from 2007 to 2100. The future carbon sink areas of global forest ecosystems will increase significantly. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, the carbon sink areas of global forest ecosystems during 2026–2100 would be significantly been expanded than those in 2007–2025, with increases of 83.16–87.26% and 23.53–29.70%, respectively. The impacts of future climate change on carbon budget of global forest ecosystems will significantly vary between different regions. The carbon budget of forests will be enhanced in the northern hemisphere and significantly weakened in the southern hemisphere under the future two climate change scenarios. The carbon sink regions of global forests will be mainly distributed in the middle and high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. In particular, the forests' carbon budget in northeastern and central Asia, northern Europe and western North America will increase by 40% ~ 80%. However, the carbon budget of forests will decrease by 20% ~ 40% in the most regions of the southern hemisphere. In northern South America and central Africa, the forests' carbon budget will be reduced by more than 40%. In the future, in some areas of southern hemisphere, where the forests' carbon budget was predicted to be reduced, some measures for improving forest carbon sink, such as strengthening forest tending, enforcing prohibiting deforestation laws and scientific forest management, and so on, should be implemented to ensure immediate mitigation and adaptation to climate change.