Abstract
AbstractWe model the future evolution of the largest glacier of the European Alps – Great Aletsch Glacier, Switzerland – during the 21st century. For that purpose we use a detailed three-dimensional model, which combines full Stokes ice dynamics and surface mass balance forced with the most recent climate projections (CH2018), as well as with climate data of the last decades. As a result, all CH2018 climate scenarios yield a major glacier retreat: Results range from a loss of 60% of today's ice volume by 2100 for a moderate CO2 emission scenario (RCP2.6) being in line with the Paris agreement to an almost complete wastage of the ice for the most extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5). Our model results also provide evidence that half of the mass loss is already committed under the climate conditions of the last decade.
Highlights
Great Aletsch Glacier is the largest glacier of the European Alps
Based on the most recent Digital Elevation Model (DEM) in 2017 obtained from the Swiss Federal Office of Topography, and recent velocity fields derived by template matching via the Matlab toolbox ImGRAFT (Messerli and Grinsted, 2015) using Sentinel-2A satellite images (Copernicus Sentinel data 2016–2018), we found that these parameters are still valid
For RCP4.5 leading to an air temperature increase of 2–4°C by 2100 relative to 1960–1990, we find a median ice-volume reduction of roughly 75% until the end of the century compared to 2017 (Fig. 2), with a wide spread
Summary
Great Aletsch Glacier is the largest glacier of the European Alps. With a length of more than 20 km and ice thicknesses of up to 800 m it covers an area of ∼80 km and contains more than 20% of the total ice volume present in the Swiss Alps (Bauder and others, 2007; Farinotti and others, 2009). To anticipate the coming changes, it is necessary to apply numerical models for simulating the future evolution of Great Aletsch Glacier accounting for the most significant underlying processes, such as the accumulation of snow and firn, the melting of ice and ice flow dynamics. It is desirable to model ice flux with the full Stokes equations, which do not rely on any mechanical simplifications. Following this approach, Jouvet and others (2011) modelled the evolution of Great Aletsch Glacier in the 21st century according to climate scenarios available by 2009. We focus on the effect of different CO2-emission scenarios, and a potential stabilization of climate forcing on the evolution of Aletsch Glacier until 2100
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