Abstract
Projections of future changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) are of increasing importance to inform policy and decision-making on options for conservation and sustainable use of BES. Scenario-based modelling is a powerful tool to assess these future changes. This study assesses the consequences for BES in Europe under four socio-environmental scenarios designed from a BES perspective. We evaluated these scenarios using two integrated assessment models (IMAGE-GLOBIO and CLIMSAVE IAP, respectively). Our results showed that (i) climate and land use change will continue to pose significant threats to biodiversity and some ecosystem services, even in the most optimistic scenario; (ii) none of the four scenarios achieved overall preservation of BES in Europe; and (iii) targeted policies (e.g. on climate change, biodiversity conservation and sustainable land management) and behavioural change (e.g. reducing meat consumption, water-saving behaviour) reduced the magnitude of BES loss. These findings stress the necessity of more ambitious policies and actions if BES in Europe are to be safeguarded. We further found that the multi-modelling approach was critical to account for complementary BES dimensions and highlighted different sources of uncertainties (e.g. related to land use allocation, driving forces behind BES changes, trade assumptions), which facilitated nuanced and contextualised insights with respect to possible BES futures.
Highlights
Biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) are declining, with potentially serious consequences for human well-being (IPBES 2019; IPCC 2019; MA 2005a; Tittensor et al 2014)
Food production within Europe was projected to increase in IMAGE-GLOBIO, due to agricultural intensification, but decrease in the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform (IAP) as a result of increased imports reducing demand for food produced within Europe
The CLIMSAVE IAP projected a decrease in the overall Species habitat suitability index (SHSI), primarily driven by a decline in farmland habitats, but saw an increase in the forest SHSI due to increases in forest areas
Summary
Biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) are declining, with potentially serious consequences for human well-being (IPBES 2019; IPCC 2019; MA 2005a; Tittensor et al 2014). It has been suggested that biodiversity and some ecosystem services (ES) (e.g. climate regulation, nutrient cycling) are at increasing risk of declining beyond the boundaries of humanity’s ‘safe operating space’ (Rockström et al 2009; Steffen et al 2015) This has led to a proliferation of policies and international commitments striving to halt further degradation, help biodiversity recover and ensure the future provision of ES critical for human wellbeing (e.g. Aichi Biodiversity targets (CBD 2010); EU Biodiversity Strategy (EC 2011; EC 2020); UN Sustainability Developments Goals (SDGs; (UN 2015)). To deliver on these aspirations, it is imperative that decision-making is underpinned by a firm understanding of the implications of future environmental changes for BES. There is a need for more integrated environmental scenarios that place BES at the centre of the scenario development to support decisions on BES policy and management at multiple scales (Rosa et al 2017)
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