Abstract
Abstract. The establishment of Batam City as a Free Trade Zone (FTZ) encourages the city’s growth, as manifested in massive built-up area expansion. The aim of this paper was to analyze the pattern of built-up area expansion in FTZ Batam in 2035 based on the corresponding pattern from 2000 to 2015. Land Change Modeler (LCM) was the instrument used to determine and analyze land cover changes in 2000–2015, from which future changes or built-up area expansion in 2035 were predicted using the validated 2020 land cover map as reference. The validation test based on the Kappa Index of Agreement yielded 96%. The prediction results showed that, compared with 2020, the built-up area in 2035 would have increased by 31.8% and expanded towards the outskirts of FTZ Batam. This sprawl follows the location of the primary activity centers in the FTZ, as allocated in Presidential Regulation of the Republic of Indonesia No. 87 of 2011. A new expansion is expected to continue into existing open space and extensive untouched forest areas. These research findings provide a concept that can be utilized to formulate certain policies and regional planning in the future.
Highlights
Batam is one of the largest cities in Kepulauan Riau Province that serves as a planned city and has become one of Indonesia’s cities with rapid development
The early stage of this study was to analyze the land cover changes or built-up area expansion that occurred in Free Trade Zone (FTZ) Batam from 2000 to 2015 using the change analysis tab in the Land Change Modeler (LCM) module contained in the IDRISI TerrSet software
Land cover change analysis) and driver variable maps (i.e., distances of land to the main road, the primary activity centers in FTZ Batam, and the location of land converted into built-up areas, and Digital Elevation Model (DEM))
Summary
Batam is one of the largest cities in Kepulauan Riau Province that serves as a planned city and has become one of Indonesia’s cities with rapid development. It is evident from built-up areas that continue to expand every year. Batam City has been designated as one of the Free-Trade Zones (FTZs) per Government Regulation of the Republic of Indonesia No 46 of 2007 on FreeTrade Zone and Free Port in Batam. The general purpose of implementing the FTZ scheme is as a means to increase economic growth. The FTZ establishment triggers the rapid growth of Batam City in various socio-economic sectors
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