Abstract
Despite recent optimism about the outlook for the future supply of domestic conventional natural gas, the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) finds insufficient evidence to clearly justify either an optimistic or a pessimistic view. In a technical memorandum entitled “U.S. Natural Gas Availability: Conventional Gas Supply Through the Year 2000,” released recently by Rep. Philip R. Sharp (D‐Ind,), chairman of the Subcommittee on Fossil and Synthetic Fuels of the Committee on Energy and Commerce, OTA concluded that substantial technical uncertainties prevented a reliable estimation of the likely natural gas production rates for later in this century. Even ignoring the potential for significant changes in gas prices and technology, OTA estimated that conventional gas production by the lower 48 states in the year 2000 could range from 9 to 19 trillion cubic feet (TCF) (0.25 to 0.53 trillion cubic meters), compared to 1982 production of 17.5 TCF. Similarly, production in the year 1990 could range from 13 to 20 TCF.
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