Future land use land cover scenario simulation using open source GIS for the city of Warangal, Telangana, India

Abstract

Geographical Information System (GIS) and remote sensing have become necessary tools in finding out land use land cover (LULC) change integrated with their associated driving factors. The utilization of satellite imagery made it easy to interpret the highly urbanized Warangal City that has experienced a lot of change in LULC during the last few decades. This paper discusses the ability of the integration of cellular automata (CA) and Markov chain–based 2D land use simulation module conjunction with GIS techniques. Markov chain algorithm is used for calibration and optimization by considering LULC of appropriate set of images for the years 2004, 2006, and 2018. Transitional change in LULC from one class to another is simulated using an artificial neural network (ANN) while cellular automata simulation is carried out to predict the plausible future LULC for the year 2052 after validating the model using the LULC of the year 2018. Analysis of the multi-temporal LULC maps indicated that the biophysical and socio-economic factors have greatly influenced the rise in built up while a decrease in agriculture in the year 2052. In conclusion, this technique is a powerful tool for monitoring and modeling change in land cover. Further suggestions for government officials are provided for an effective policymaking and to protect the land resource.