Future housing need in the randstad Holland: A matter of continuing individuation?

Abstract

One of the major problems that has plagued Dutch society since the Second World War is the persistent housing shortage. At the end of the 1980s, this shortage was thought to have been solved. Therefore it came as a shock when the Ministerie voor Volkshuisvesting, Ruimtelijke Ordening en Milieubeheer (Ministerie VROM: Ministry of Housing, Physical Planning and Environment) published its 'Vierde Nota over de Ruimtelijke Ordening' (Fourth Report on Physical Planning) announcing an additional housing need of approximately one million dwellings in the Randstad between 1988 and 2015 (VROM, 1988). This figure was based on population forecasts and prognoses of future individual housing need. The Stichting Natuur en Milieu (Nature and Environment Foundation), which advocates the preservation of the 'Green Heart' area that lies in the middle of the Randstad, commissioned us to 'test' the reliability of the figures on future housing need presented in the Fourth Report. We calculated future housing need on the basis of the same population forecasts but other assumptions concerning individual housing needs (headship rates) (De Gans and Oskamp, 1990a). Whereas the national planning agency assumes continuing trends of individuation, we explore the possibilities of a shift in these processes. This article identifies signs that such a shift could indeed occur. We do not assert that the shift will definitely take place; in the short run, the odds are against this. But we posit that such a shift is more likely than is generally thought. This article does not set out to prove the forecasters of the national planning agency wrong. Rather, we intend to show that the future may be different than they lead us to expect.