Abstract
Invasive plant species are a significant global problem, with the potential to alter structure and function of ecosystems and cause economic damage to managed landscapes. An effective course of action to reduce the spread of invasive plant species is to identify potential habitat incorporating changing climate scenarios. In this study, we used a suite of species distribution models (SDMs) to project habitat suitability of the eleven most abundant invasive weed species across road networks of Montana, USA, under current (2005) conditions and future (2040) projected climates. We found high agreement between different model predictions for most species. Among the environmental predictors, February minimum temperature, monthly precipitation, solar radiation, and December vapor pressure deficit accounted for the most variation in projecting habitat suitability for most of the invasive weed species. The model projected that habitat suitability along roadsides would expand for seven species ranging from + 5 to + 647% and decline for four species ranging from − 11 to − 88% under high representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas (GHG) trajectory. When compared with current distribution, the ensemble model projected the highest expansion habitat suitability with six-fold increase for St. John’s Wort (Hypericum perforatum), whereas habitat suitability of leafy spurge (Euphorbia esula) was reduced by − 88%. Our study highlights the roadside areas that are currently most invaded by our eleven target species across 55 counties of Montana, and how this will change with climate. We conclude that the projected range shift of invasive weeds challenges the status quo, and requires greater investment in detection and monitoring to prevent expansion. Though our study focuses across road networks of a specific region, we expect our approach will be globally applicable as the predictions reflect fundamental ecological processes.
Highlights
Ecological integrity and biodiversity of many ecosystems have been seriously threatened by expansion of invasive species (Pimentel et al 2005)
The model ensemble projected a reduction in spatial distribution of four species in the future, including E. esula (− 88%) followed by C. maculosa (− 26%), C. draba (− 13%), and L. dalmatica (− 11%)
Our study identified key climatic drivers affecting weed distribution and projected the habitat suitability of the 11 most abundant noxious invasive weed species across the major road network of Montana, USA, under current and future climate scenarios using an ensemble of models
Summary
Ecological integrity and biodiversity of many ecosystems have been seriously threatened by expansion of invasive species (Pimentel et al 2005). There is a great concern about the problems posed by invasive species in natural ecosystems globally, and the rates of invasive species establishment have increased with globalization and elevated warming (Huston 2004; Wilson et al 2009; Williams et al 2015). Both experimental and observational studies indicate biological invasions as a major threat to existing biodiversity, second only to landuse change as a cause of species endangerment (Bellard et al 2016). We project habitat suitability of eleven noxious invasive weed species we observed across road networks of Montana, USA, under current and future projected climate (Whitlock et al 2017)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary 
Published Version (
Free)
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call