Future Disaster Risk Reduction Strategy Based on Land Use Prediction in a Surrounding Area of a Newly Developed Airport Infrastructure

Abstract

Many works of literature stated that the development of new infrastructure, including airports, could affect land-use change as well as built-up areas expansion. The conversion of undeveloped land into business, recreational, and residential sites are driven by the need for complementary facilities for airports. In the end, the development of the airport and these changes are hopefully leading to the economic development of surrounding areas. However, several areas are exposed to some hazards, including tsunamis, earthquakes, drought, and floods, which could potentially hinder economic development. When the built-up areas expand uncontrollably, those risks will also increase in the future. Therefore, this paper will seek to predict the changes in built-up areas driven by the development of a newly built airport area. The case study is conducted in the new construction of the airport, namely Yogyakarta International Airport (YIA) in Kalurahan Glagah, Kulon Progo Regency, as it officially began in 2017. After understanding future land use, this paper will try to develop strategies to minimize disaster risks. The prediction will use cellular automata modeling using the MOLUSCE plugin of QGIS. Other driving factors will also be considered in this paper, such as distance to road, distance to existing residential areas, etc. Finally, the prediction map will be overlaid with hazard maps of the Kulon Progo Regency in order to understand the exposed area. This paper hopefully could be an input to the future policies in Kulon Progo.