Future climate risk and urban tree inventories in Australian cities: Pitfalls, possibilities and practical considerations

Abstract

Urban tree inventories are useful tools to assess the environmental and socio-economic services provided by urban forests. These inventories enable the evaluation of the climate change risk to urban forests, and governments rely on such inventories for urban planning and management. Here, we assessed the future climate risk of Australia and the state of urban tree inventories across 116 local government areas (LGAs), representing 21 % of the country’s LGAs and encompassing 55 % of the national human population. We evaluated projected changes in temperature and precipitation by 2050 for each LGA and conducted a survey to obtain information on the extent and types of data available in existing urban tree inventories. Additionally, we compiled demographic, socio-economic, and geographical data for all LGAs to explore correlates with tree inventory status. Temperature increases in 2050 were predicted in all LGAs, with higher latitude and smaller LGAs identified to undergo greater increases in temperature compared to larger and lower latitude LGAs. Decreases in seasonal precipitation were predicted for 97 LGAs. Seventy-six (66 %) of surveyed LGAs had urban tree inventories, which most commonly included trees along streets and in parks. Sixty-one LGAs record information on tree mortality, while 31 LGAs dynamically update their inventories. The presence of an inventory and the area it covered were positively associated with human population density. More than 30 years ago, in 1988, John Gray wrote that “insufficient statistics were available in Australia to provide an accurate picture of the urban forest estate”. Our research shows there has not been a significant advance in the adoption and use of urban forest inventories over the past three decades. Long-term, dynamically updated inventories are crucial for urban forest management to inform planting choices to support sustainable and resilient cities.