Abstract

By considering central pressure and radius of maximum wind speed of Typhoon Jebi (2018), we predicted the worst-case storm surge in Osaka Bay based on the pseudo-global warming downscaling technique with a high-resolution typhoon model and storm surge model. The sea-level anomaly at Osaka Bay (277 cm) simulated by a reproducing experiment showed a good agreement with that observed at Osaka Bay (282 cm). Pseudo-global warming experiments indicated that the maximum sea-level anomaly was increased by increasing typhoon intensity under the future climate, and the range where the maximum sea level anomaly exceeds 150 cm is greatly expanded. In addition, the worst storm surge reached to the highest value (328 cm) in Osaka Bay if it followed the western course by +0.3 degrees than the actual typhoon course.

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