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Abstract
The recent progress of the global warming raise concerns the future changes of tropical cyclones (i.e. hurricane, typhoon, and cyclone) and their associated coastal disasters. It is thought that the increases of both the sea surface temperature and ocean heat contents by the global warming could increase the intensity of future tropical cyclones. As a method of quantitative assessment for the impact of global warming on tropical cyclones and their storm surges, “pseudo-global warming downscaling†is generally adopted using a regional climate model and a storm surge model (Takayabu et al., 2015). Estimating the differences of experiments between present and future climate, we can quantify the future changes of typhoon intensity and storm surge by the global warming. Using the high-resolution typhoon model, we carry out a present climate experiment and pseudo-global warming experiments on typhoon intensity and its storm surge of Typhoon Sanba (2012) in this study. Sanba went northward on the west coast of Kyushu Island and caused a storm surge in Ariake Sea, Japan. Sanba had a minimum central pressure of 900 hPa and a maximum wind speed of 55 m/s. The observed maximum sea level anomaly was 104 cm at Oura, Saga Prefecture. To evaluate the impacts of global warming differences (GWDs) on typhoon intensity and storm surge, sensitivity experiments on different months (August, September, and October) in future typhoon season are also made.
Highlights
Increase in air temperature, sea surface temperature, and ocean heat storage is considered to vastly impact the characteristics of tropical cyclones (Wada et al 2007; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013; Lin et al 2013; Trenberth et al 2018)
The result of the storm surge at Oura Port from the Empirical Typhoon Model (ETM) and storm surge model (SSM) was 0.95 m as the maximum sea-level anomaly, which was quite close to the observed value (1.04 m) (Table 5)
The High-resolution Typhoon Model (HTM) can reproduce the mature intensity of Super Typhoon Sanba and the storm surge results were generated with high accuracy, such that it is thought that a certain precision is guaranteed for the Pseudo–global warming experiments (PGWEs) discussed
Summary
Sea surface temperature, and ocean heat storage is considered to vastly impact the characteristics of tropical cyclones (i.e., hurricane, typhoon, and cyclone) (Wada et al 2007; IPCC 2013; Lin et al 2013; Trenberth et al 2018). We conduct a present-climate experiment (CNTRL) and ensemble pseudo–global warming experiments (PGWEs) on the intensity of Typhoon Sanba (2012) and its associated storm surge. Sanba was a super typhoon, the intensity of which reached a central pressure of 900 hPa with a maximum wind speed of 55 m/s in the mature stage, and it traveled toward the north along the western coast of Kyushu Island, Japan, causing storm surge disasters around the coastal areas on 17 September 2012 (Japan Meteorological Agency 2017).
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