Future climate change will severely reduce habitat suitability of the Critically Endangered Chinese giant salamander

Abstract

Abstract Being the largest extant amphibian in the world, the IUCN Critically Endangered Chinese giant salamander Andrias davidianus is a charismatic species with great international public interest. While threats such as commercial overexploitation and habitat degradation have been extensively documented to affect natural populations of A. davidianus, still no information is available about the species sensitivity to climate change. Here, we develop an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs) for A. davidianus and projected its habitat suitability under present‐day and future climate change scenarios. We based our SDMs on bioclimatic and topographic predictors, and recent (2012–2018) field‐collected occurrence data across the whole distribution range of the species. The ensemble SDMs exhibited good predictive capacity and suggested that slope, maximum temperature of warmest month, precipitation of driest month, and isothermality are the most influential predictors in determining distribution patterns in this species. The projections of our models point to a pronounced impact of climate changes over A. davidianus, with more than two‐thirds of its suitable range expected to be lost in all scenarios of future climates tested. In concert with the numerous other threats that are affecting this species, climate change poses a serious hindrance to the long‐term survival of A. davidianus. We emphasise the urgent need of undertaking strict measures to manage this species and safeguard the few remaining available suitable habitats. We suggest that adaptive management strategies including designation of new reserves should be considered to mitigate the impacts of climate change on A. davidianus.