Future changes in thermal comfort conditions over China based on multi-RegCM4 simulations

Xue-Jie Gao,Jie Wu,Yao Tong,Filippo Giorgi,Ying Shi,Jia Wu,Dong-Feng Zhang,Ying Xu,Rou-Ke Li,Zhen-Yu Han

doi:10.1080/16742834.2018.1471578

Abstract

A set of high resolution (25 km) 21st century climate change projections using the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by four global model simulations were conducted over East Asia under the mid-...

Highlights

One of the main concerns related to global warming is the change in thermal conditions for the living environment of human beings
A new and unprecedented set of 21st century climate projections at 25 km grid spacing over East Asia were completed by using the RegCM4 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (Giorgi et al 2012) driven by four different General Circulation Models (GCMs) under RCP4.5, which lies towards the middle of the emissions scenario range
The climate projections analyzed here were completed with the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics RegCM4 (Giorgi et al 2012) run over East Asia with model physical and parameter configurations identified in previous applications (Gao, Shi, and Giorgi 2016; Gao et al 2017)

Summary

Introduction

It is critical to assess how these variability factors can affect future changes in human thermal conditions throughout the country under increased concentrations of greenhouse gases Within this context, previous studies have shown the advantages of high resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in generating climate projections over China and capturing the complex physiography and unique weather and climate systems of the region (Gao et al 2012). A new and unprecedented set of 21st century climate projections at 25 km grid spacing over East Asia were completed by using the RegCM4 RCM (Giorgi et al 2012) driven by four different General Circulation Models (GCMs) under RCP4.5, which lies towards the middle of the emissions scenario range This ensemble offers an excellent opportunity to investigate the projected changes in thermal conditions over China by using the ET index. This is accomplished here by multiplying present day and future population amounts by the climate-based number of days in a thermal comfort category (resulting in units of ‘person-days’)

Model and experimental design

Bias correction and ET

37 À T 0:0014RH þ

Present day

Contributions from different factors

Conclusions and discussion