Inequality of Global Thermal Comfort Conditions Changes in a Warmer World

Abstract

AbstractChanges in the thermal comfort condition of the living environment of human beings are one of the main concerns related to global warming. While previous studies largely focused on mean temperature and warm/cold extremes, changes in thermal comfort conditions (both comfort and discomfort conditions) have not been adequately revealed. Based on climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), future thermal comfort conditions over global land using net effective temperature index that considers the aggregate effects of temperature, relative humidity, and wind on human thermal perception were investigated. The focus was on the projected changes in thermal comfort conditions in different regions based on gross domestic product per capita, an indicator of adaptive capacity. An inequitable impact of escalating global warming on thermal comfort conditions emerges: in high‐income regions (mostly distributed in cool mid‐high latitudes), a diminishing number of cold‐uncomfortable days and an increasing number of comfort days collectively would contribute to an improvement in thermal comfort conditions; however, in low‐income regions (mostly distributed in warmer low latitudes), thermal comfort conditions are expected to worsen as a result of a dramatic increase in the number of warm‐uncomfortable days that greatly exceeds the decrease in the number of cold‐uncomfortable days and a decrease in the number of comfortable days. Moreover, analysis accounting for population exposure suggests that the overall impact of future changes in thermal comfort conditions on the global population is negative. Therefore, prioritized support for climate mitigation and adaptation to developing nations is justified and urgently needed.