Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north

Christer Nilsson,Terry V. Callaghan,Jon Moen,Halvor Dannevig,F. Stuart Chapin III,Paul Eric Aspholm,Bob van Oort,Rolf A. Ims,Roland Jansson,Mar Cabeza,Ingrid A. Bay-larsen,Marja-Liisa Sutinen,E. Carina H. Keskitalo,Tatiana Vlasova,Kari Anne Bråthen

doi:10.5751/es-07607-200332

Abstract

Humans depend on services provided by ecosystems, and how services are affected by climate change is increasingly studied. Few studies, however, address changes likely to affect services from seminatural ecosystems. We analyzed ecosystem goods and services in natural and seminatural systems, specifically how they are expected to change as a result of projected climate change during the 21st century. We selected terrestrial and freshwater systems in northernmost Europe, where climate is anticipated to change more than the global average, and identified likely changes in ecosystem services and their societal consequences. We did this by assembling experts from ecology, social science, and cultural geography in workshops, and we also performed a literature review. Results show that most ecosystem services are affected by multiple factors, often acting in opposite directions. Out of 14 services considered, 8 are expected to increase or remain relatively unchanged in supply, and 6 are expected to decrease. Although we do not predict collapse or disappearance of any of the investigated services, the effects of climate change in conjunction with potential economical and societal changes may exceed the adaptive capacity of societies. This may result in societal reorganization and changes in ways that ecosystems are used. Significant uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the forecast make specific conclusions about societal responses to safeguard human well-being questionable. Adapting to changes in ecosystem services will therefore require consideration of uncertainties and complexities in both social and ecological responses. The scenarios presented here provide a framework for future studies exploring such issues.

Highlights

Northern areas of the globe and in particular the Arctic have warmed about twice as fast as the global average over the last century (ACIA 2005, IPCC 2013), and models indicate continued warming
Based on an expert assessment, we focused on renewable resource-utilizing practices related to wood production, reindeer products, game and fish species, berries and mushrooms, biodiversity, and cultural activities
If interactions among the societal consequences and adaptation strategies are considered, the situation becomes even more complex. This expert assessment and literature review of major ecosystem services relevant to the Barents Region project changes in many of the ecosystem services derived from natural ecosystems in the region

Summary

Introduction

Northern areas of the globe and in particular the Arctic have warmed about twice as fast as the global average over the last century (ACIA 2005, IPCC 2013), and models indicate continued warming. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA 2003) provided a framework for assessing changes in ecosystem services, and a few studies have since evaluated climate-change effects on ecosystem services at regional scales (MA 2005b, Schröter et al 2005). Most such studies focus on human-dominated ecosystems, such as agricultural and urban areas, analyzing effects on services such as crop production and pollination. Less is known about how services provided by natural or seminatural ecosystems, where most of Earth’s biodiversity resides, will be affected by climate change Most such efforts have focused on carbon balance and sequestration. Given that both communities and large resource production networks such as forestry rely on resources from seminatural ecosystems, such knowledge is important

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