Abstract

AbstractAimIt is widely recognized that the prediction of invasion success at large biogeographical scales requires jointly accounting for alien species traits and local community filters, such as abiotic conditions, biotic interactions and propagule pressure. Despite this recognition, interactions between traits and community filters are generally neglected. Here, we aim to address this limitation by developing a hierarchical framework that builds on trait‐based theory to model occurrences of alien species as a function of spatially explicit variables, filtering invasions and their interactions with species traits.LocationHerbaceous communities throughout France.Time periodc. 1960–2012 (mostly after 1990).Major taxa studiedHerbaceous plants.MethodsBased on a large dataset of >50,000 community plots, we built a multispecies hierarchical model of the distribution of the 10 most widespread alien plants in French grasslands. In this model, we explicitly account for how plant height, specific leaf area (SLA) and seed mass affect the occurrence of alien species along gradients of human pressure, environmental conditions and native community composition. Finally, we contrast the results to native species responses along the same gradients.ResultsWe show that two out of three traits significantly modulate the responses of species along these broad gradients. Alien plants with exploitative traits (i.e., tall and with high SLA) were less dependent on human pressure, more efficient in resource‐rich environments and better at avoiding competition from native species. These trait–gradient interactions were often unique to alien plants (e.g., human pressure was important only for supporting alien species with low SLA), even though trait ranges of alien and native species were comparable. Ultimately, the modelling of trait–gradient interactions allows spatially explicit estimations of invasion risks by novel species with particular sets of traits.Main conclusionsBy taking the best from multispecies distribution modelling and trait‐based theory, our framework paves the way for a generalized mechanistic understanding of how traits influence the success of alien plants and their spatial distributions.

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