Abstract
Abstract. The Pūre orchard is one of the oldest apple orchards in the Baltic, where thousands of varieties of fruit trees from throughout the world are grown and tested. Over time, a huge knowledge base has been accumulated, but most of the observational data are stored in archives in paper format. We have digitized a small part of the full flowering phenological data of apple trees (Malus domestica) over the period of 1959 to 2019 for 17 varieties of apple trees, a significant step for horticulture and agricultural economics in Latvia. Climate change has led to significant changes in the phenology of apple trees as all varieties, autumn, summer and winter, have begun to flower earlier: from 2002 to 2019, on average full flowering was recorded to have taken place around 21 May, whereas for the period 1959–1967 it occurred around 27–28 May. To develop better-quality phenological predictions and to take account of the fragmentary nature of phenological data, in our study we assessed the performance of three meteorological data sets – gridded observation data from E-OBS, ERA5-Land reanalysis data and direct observations from a distant meteorological station – in simple phenological degree-day models. In the first approximation, the gridded E-OBS data set performs best in our phenological model.
Highlights
Agriculture, including horticulture, plays an important role in the economy of Latvia and Europe as a whole
In the study we have (1) digitized a small part of the full flowering phenological data of apple trees (Malus domestica) over the period from 1959 to 2019 for the Pure orchard, one of the oldest apple orchards in the Baltics; (2) described phenological trends for 17 apple varieties in Latvia, classifying them according to their harvesting maturity: summer, autumn and winter apple varieties; (3) assessed three sets of meteorological data in phenological models
Horticulture in Latvia has immense potential, provides information on the impact of climate change, including for modelling of future climate scenarios based on phenological data, and can contribute to the further development of the Latvian economy
Summary
Agriculture, including horticulture, plays an important role in the economy of Latvia and Europe as a whole. Phenological changes in the growth period of the varieties of apple tree (Malus domestica) studied have been recorded in eastern and northern Europe (Kalvane, 2011; Rivero et al, 2017; Romanovskaja and Bakšiene, 2020; Woznicki et al, 2019; Kondratenko and Kondratenko, 2015), where the present study area is located, as well elsewhere in Europe and throughout the world (Chmielewski et al, 2004; Legave et al, 2008; Menzel et al, 2020; Miller-Rushing et al, 2007). Horticulture in Latvia has immense potential, provides information on the impact of climate change, including for modelling of future climate scenarios based on phenological data, and can contribute to the further development of the Latvian economy
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