Abstract
We used near-term climate scenarios for the continental United States, to model 12 invasive plants species. We created three potential habitat suitability models for each species using maximum entropy modeling: (1) current; (2) 2020; and (3) 2035. Area under the curve values for the models ranged from 0.92 to 0.70, with 10 of the 12 being above 0.83 suggesting strong and predictable species-environment matching. Change in area between the current potential habitat and 2035 ranged from a potential habitat loss of about 217,000 km2, to a potential habitat gain of about 133,000 km2.
Highlights
Invasive species are a major threat to ecosystems worldwide
We considered two species as habitat specialists; Lythrum salicaria as it is generally confined to wetlands [24]; and Pennisetum ciliare being confined to sandy soils, that do not freeze for extended periods, with precipitation from 200 to 1200 mm per year [25]
We had a range of available sample sizes from 282 to 9517 (Table 1), all of which represent quite a small proportion of the land in the conterminous United States
Summary
Invasive species are a major threat to ecosystems worldwide. They play a major role in displacing native species [1,2,3] and cause deterioration of many ecosystem functions [4,5]. Detection of invasive plants is of the utmost importance, especially discovering and mitigating invasions when they are small [7,8,9]. This issue becomes relevant in the face of climate change [10,11]. There is a potential for the area of habitat that is suitable for any given species to shift with rapid climate change. Those populations that are on the edges of the invasion will have the potential to move with the climate change. There is the potential for an adaptable species such as a habitat generalist to continue to adapt to new climates and not shift at all, populations of species have the opportunity to migrate, adapt, or be extirpated
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