Spatial modeling for assessing extended potential habitat of Javan rhino (Rhinoceros sondaicus) in Ujung Kulon National Park, Indonesia

Abstract

Ujung Kulon National Park (UKNP) is a protected area and also the sole habitat for Javan rhino. In UKNP, Peninsula and Mount Honje area have unique geomorphic characteristics. Distribution of the Javan rhino is found in Ujung Kulon Peninsula only. Therefore, this study aims to produce a potential habitat suitability model and to understand the contribution of each habitat variable to the presence of Javan rhinos in the extended area outside the Ujung Kulon Peninsula. The method used in this research is field observation of the rhino's signs and monitoring through camera traps deployed in those two areas. The presence of Javan rhino in 2017-2018 is monitored. Five variables of habitat fitness are used to produce a spatial habitat suitability model of Javan rhino. Those variables were slope, flow accumulation, potential forage, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and distance from the stream. Remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis are used to prepare all variables and produce the model. The habitat suitability model is produced by using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) software. This model produced a potential habitat suitability map of Javan rhino with mapping accuracy AUC value is 0.695, that is fair performance. The results from this study are the prediction of habitat suitability is 29,1738.05 hectares (60.66%) inside the national park. The suitable area dominated in Ujung Kulon Peninsula and fragmented in Mount Honje, due to the slope factor and followed with potential forage availability. The model shows the highest to the lowest percent contribution variables i.e. slope, potential forage, NDVI, distance from the stream, and flow accumulation. Javan rhino preferred lowland than highland areas, also inhabits in area rumpangs and shurbs because of highly potential forage availability. This model can be used to provide a baseline map and recommendation for the next monitoring design for updating the distribution of Javan rhinos in potential extended habitat within the Ujung Kulon National Park. Prediction of the potential habitat is essential in managing conservation area and also an effort to maintain the existence of Javan rhino.