From invaders to residents: The golden jackal (Canis aureus) expansion in Hungary since the mid-1990s.

Abstract

The golden jackal has rapidly expanded across Europe in recent decades and was one of the first to reappear in Hungary. Using hunting bag data from the National Game Management Database from 1995 to 2021, we examined the spatial expansion of the species and its population dynamics. Our findings reveal an exponential increase in the golden jackal population since the mid-1990s, with an average annual growth rate of 40% in the hunting bag and an occupancy of 86% of the country. The average speed of the range expansion was 536.9 km2 year-1 until 2007 and increased to an average of 5,289.1 km2 year-1 during the second part of the expansion process. The density of shot golden jackals also shows an increasing trend with a substantial presence of outliers, indicating that nearly 10% of the hunting bag demonstrates exceptionally high numbers, particularly in southwestern Hungary. The spread originated in the southwest and extended towards the northeast and northwest. However, the increase of the hunting bag slowed down and the expansion rate has decreased in the previous two years, leading us to anticipate that the golden jackal population will stabilize soon, as the expansion has reached its maximum in Hungary. This indicates that from the initial settlement to the stabilization of the population, the time span can be two to three decades.