From flood science to flood policy: the Foresight Future Flooding project seven years on

Abstract

PurposeThe Foresight Future Flooding (FFF) project researched flood risk in the UK to the year 2100 for central government, using scenarios and a national risk assessment model backed by qualitative analysis from panels of some 45 senior scientists. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of the project, both nationally and internationally.Design/methodology/approachThis paper assesses the impact of the FFF project, both nationally and internationally, using web searches, document analysis, and a questionnaire survey of key actors in the flood risk management policy field.FindingsIt was found that the penetration of the project into professionals' consciousness was high in relation to other comparable projects and publications, and its impact on policy – both immediately and continuing – was profound. The FFF initiative did not create policy change, however, but facilitated its legitimation, adding impetus to what was already there, as one element of a part‐catalytic and part‐incremental process of policy evolution.Research limitations/implicationsSpecial circumstances, internal and external to the project, mean that this cannot be a simple model for matching research to policymakers' needs in the future.Practical implicationsImportant lessons may be learnt from this project about both the methods of forward‐looking foresight‐type research, and the way that its results are disseminated to its target audiences.Originality/valueThis is an innovative attempt to assess the impact of a new type of foresight project.