Abstract
We introduce firm solar forecasts as a strategy to operate optimally overbuilt solar power plants in conjunction with optimally sized storage systems so as to make up for any power prediction errors, and hence entirely remove load balancing uncertainty emanating from grid-connected solar fleets. A central part of this strategy is the plant overbuilding that we term implicit storage. We show that strategy, while economically justifiable on its own account, is an effective entry step to achieving least-cost ultra-high solar penetration where firm power generation will be a prerequisite. We demonstrate that in the absence of an implicit storage strategy, ultra-high solar penetration would be vastly more expensive. Using the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) as a case study, we determine current and future costs of firm forecasts for a comprehensive set of scenarios in each ISO electrical region, comparing centralized vs. decentralized production and assessing load flexibility’s impact. We simulate the growth of the strategy from firm forecast to firm power generation. We conclude that ultra-high solar penetration enabled by the present strategy, whereby solar would firmly supply the entire NYISO load, could be achieved locally at electricity production costs comparable to current NYISO wholesale market prices.
Highlights
Solar Forecasts: From minutes-ahead to days ahead, solar forecasts have become integral to utility operations as solar power generation– photovoltaics (PV)–penetrates power grids
We presented a firm solar forecast strategy aroundoptimized optimized physical implicit forecast strategyarticulated articulated around physical andand implicit storage overbuilding solar resource)asasan anoperational operational alternative thethe standard practice of of storage
We showed that exploiting probabilistic forecast models to integrate solar resources into power grids
Summary
Solar Forecasts: From minutes-ahead to days ahead, solar forecasts have become integral to utility operations as solar power generation– photovoltaics (PV)–penetrates power grids. Togrid, designate the overbuilt/curtailable strategy based on storage and optimized overbuilding/curtailment canfirm be gradually expanded over part of PV applied to cost-minimize both firm power forecasts and power generation This time, following the enabling of technology cost without decreases and TSO’s learning curves, to meet overbuilt part enables operational curtailment the loss of planned production. Actsusing as a catalyst pathways to operational ultra-high PV penetration enabled by implicit storage logistics Itand a large to storage, allowing storage to achieve its objective, i.e., transforming intermittent into a firm, Transmission System Operator (TSO) as a case study This pathway originates at (current) low effectively dispatchable but at justifiable a considerably cost. The final result (Section 3.4) analyzes and discusses the above results in the context ofMethods regional PV fleet deployment and management, from centralized to homogeneously dispersed PV fleets, and from regionally localized to fully dispersed strategies
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