From bombs to bytes: Can our nuclear history inform our cyber future?

Abstract

In this essay, the author argues that cyber war does not pose the existential threat to humanity that nuclear weapons do. Still, some experts have called for cyber arms control negotiations and formal treaties. Differences in cultural norms and verification difficulties make such treaties hard to negotiate. International talks and cooperation might, however, develop rough rules of the road—analogous to those developed for nuclear weapons early in the Cold War—that can limit cyber conflict. The most promising early areas for international cyber cooperation are probably not bilateral conflicts but problems posed by third parties such as criminals and terrorists. It is likely, the author contends, that major governments will eventually give higher priority to cooperation that works against the insecurity created by non-state actors with cyber weaponry. But the world is far from such a response at this stage of cyber development, just as the major powers did not begin such cooperation on nuclear weapons until the third decade of the nuclear era.