Frequency of Dynamic Fire Behaviours in Australian Forest Environments

Alexander I Filkov,Thomas J Duff,Trent D Penman

doi:10.3390/fire3010001

Alexander I Filkov, Thomas J Duff + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3010001

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Journal: Fire	Publication Date: Dec 18, 2019
Citations: 10	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, University of Melbourne

Abstract

Wildfires can result in significant social, environmental and economic losses. Fires in which dynamic fire behaviours (DFBs) occur contribute disproportionately to damage statistics. Little quantitative data on the frequency at which DFBs occur exists. To address this problem, we conducted a structured survey using staff from fire and land management agencies in Australia regarding their experiences with DFBs. Staff were asked which, if any, DFBs were observed within fires greater than 1000 ha from the period 2006–2016 that they had experience with. They were also asked about the nature of evidence to support these observations. One hundred thirteen fires were identified. Eighty of them had between one and seven DFBs with 73% (58 fires) having multiple types of DFBs. Most DFBs could commonly be identified through direct data, suggesting an empirical analysis of these phenomena should be possible. Spotting, crown fires and pyro-convective events were the most common DFBs (66%); when combined with eruptive fires and conflagrations, these DFBs comprise 89% of all cases with DFBs. Further research should be focused on these DFBs due to their high frequencies and the fact that quantitative data are likely to be available.

Highlights

IntroductionFire propagation can be significantly affected by dynamic feedback processes that result in unpredictable behaviour, and the continual escalation of fire spread rates and intensities even when environmental conditions are consistent
Extreme wildfires create disproportionate risks to environmental and human assets.Fire propagation can be significantly affected by dynamic feedback processes that result in unpredictable behaviour, and the continual escalation of fire spread rates and intensities even when environmental conditions are consistent
Based on the information stated above we propose using the term “dynamic fire behaviour” (DFB hereafter) rather than “extreme fire behaviour”

Summary

Introduction

Fire propagation can be significantly affected by dynamic feedback processes that result in unpredictable behaviour, and the continual escalation of fire spread rates and intensities even when environmental conditions are consistent. These fires behave in a manner that goes beyond the suppression means and fire-fighters are unable to control the fire spread even in the most prepared and equipped regions [1]. The trend for the occurrence of extreme wildfires appears to be increasing each year [8,9,17,18]

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