A Systematic Approach to Map and Evaluate the Wildfire Behavior at a Territorial Scale in the Northwestern Iberian Peninsula

Abstract

In the current context of extreme wildfires, understanding fire behavior at a territorial level has proven crucial for territory planning. This type of analysis is usually conducted by analyzing past wildfire statistics. In this study, we forego the past information related to wildfires and analyze, instead, the behavior of the entire territory in the face of wildfires. This allows for the distribution of ignition points to be systematized and for typical and atypical weather scenarios to be considered. This analysis relies on the use of wildfire simulation software. Ignition points used for the simulations were distributed using a systematic 1 × 1 km grid throughout the whole study area. Wildfires were simulated for each ignition point using eight different weather scenarios representing both typical and atypical weather conditions. The fire behavior on the territory was analyzed using rate of spread and intensity parameters for each simulated wildfire. It was observed that this territory is extremely prone to large wildfires both in typical and atypical weather conditions and that there is a tendency for extreme behaviors to develop. Some features were identified as prevention issues that ought to be addressed. This study develops a strategy to evaluate, in a systematic manner, the response of the territory to the threat of wildfires.