Abstract
Mycotoxins such as deoxynivalenol (DON) in wheat grain pose a threat to food and feed safety. Models predicting DON levels mostly require field specific input data that in turn allow predictions for individual fields. To obtain predictions for entire regions, model results from fields commonly have to be aggregated, requiring many model runs and the integration of field specific information. Here, we present a novel approach for predicting the percentage of winter wheat samples with DON levels above the EU maximum legal limit (ML) based on freely available agricultural summary statistics and meteorological data for an entire region using case study data from Luxembourg and Switzerland. The coefficient of variation of the rainfall data recorded ±7 days around wheat anthesis and the percentage of fields with a previous crop of maize were used to predict the countrywide percentage of winter wheat grain samples with DON levels > ML. The relationships found in the present study allow for a better assessment of the risk of obtaining winter wheat samples with DON contaminations > ML for an entire region based on predictors that are freely available in agricultural summary statistics and meteorological data.
Highlights
Winter wheat is among the most important crops for human nutrition together with maize and rice
Other years were not included in the rainfall analysis because for those years, no DON levels > 1250 μg/kg were observed, suggesting that weather conditions were insufficient for exceeding the maximum legal limit (ML)
Levels > 1250 μg/kg were observed suggesting that weather conditions were insufficient for exceeding the ML
Summary
Winter wheat is among the most important crops for human nutrition together with maize and rice. According to the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the global wheat production reached 767 million tons in 2020, corresponding with 28% of the world’s cereal production. Fusarium head blight (FHB) is one of the major cereal diseases. Head blight can be caused by different Fusarium species. Fusarium graminearum and F. avenaceum are frequently found in many European countries while. F. poae, F. culmorum, F. cerealis, F. equiseti, F. sporotrichioides and F. tricinctum have been reported more regionally at lower frequencies [1,2,3]. Fusarium species produce secondary metabolites called mycotoxins. The yield losses and mycotoxin contaminations make
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