Abstract
Future changes in heat wave characteristics over India have been analyzed using Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) for South Asia (SA) regional climate model simulations for mid-term (2041-2060) and long-term (2081-2099) future under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. SMHI_CSIRO-MK3.6 was found to be the best model in simulating heat wave trend over India for historical period. Future projections show a four-to-seven-fold increase in heat wave frequency for mid-term and long-term future under RCP 4.5 scenario, and five-to-ten-fold increase under RCP 8.5 scenario with increase in frequency dominating intensity in both the scenarios. Northwestern, Central, and South-central India emerged as future heat wave hotspots with largest increase in the south-central region. This high-resolution regional future projection of heat wave occurrence will serve as a baseline for developing transformational heat-resilient policies and adaptation measures to reduce potential impact on human health, agriculture, and infrastructure.
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