Abstract
The present study evaluates the rainfall magnitude for different return periods and also to ascertain the type of probability distribution that best fits the rainfall data of Dharamshala (H.P.), India. The study uses the 20 years of annual rainfall data that are useful for the prediction of annual one day maximum rainfall and two to seven days consecutive days maximum rainfall corresponding to return period varying from 2 to 20 years are to be used for the economic planning, by design engineers and hydrologists, design of small and medium hydrologic structures and determination of drainage coefficient for agricultural fields. Various probability distributions (viz: Normal, Log Normal and Gamma distribution) and transformations are applied to estimate one day and two to seven consecutive days annual maximum rainfall of various return periods in the Dharamshala (H.P.) region. The mean value of one-day annual maximum rainfall at Dharamshala is found to be 142.9 mm with standard deviation and coefficient of variation of 54.8 and 51.34 respectively. The coefficient of skewness is 1.1. For 2 to 7 days consecutive annual maximum rainfall range values for mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and coefficient of skewness are 201 – 393.4 mm , 70.17 – 146.5, 41.65 – 30.47 and 0.726 – 1.593. It is observed that all distribution fitted function significantly.
Highlights
Analysis of rainfall and determination of annual maximum daily rainfall would enhance the management of water resources applications as well as the effective utilization of water resources
Three types of probability distributions (Normal, Log Normal and Gamma distribution) Walck (2007) are commonly used to determine the best fit probability distribution using the comparison of Chi-square, Anderson-Darling and Kolmogorov–Smirnov values
Use Daily rainfall data recorded at Dharamshala (Himachal Pradesh) for a period of 20 years (1992-2012) by India Meteorological Department, Shimla (H.P.), India were used for this study
Summary
Use Daily rainfall data recorded at Dharamshala (Himachal Pradesh) for a period of 20 years (1992-2012) by India Meteorological Department, Shimla (H.P.), India were used for this study. 2.1 Statistical analysis of data The statistical behavior of any hydrological series can be described on the basis of certain parameters, generally mean, variance, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and coefficient of skewness were taken as measures of variability of any hydrologic series. All these parameters have been used to describe the variability of rainfall in the present study. Standard deviation This parameter, as a measure of variability is most adoptable to statistical analysis. The coefficient of skewness was determined for each set of data from the formula given below: Cs
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