Frank Notestein on Population Growth and Economic Development

Abstract

Drawing on the analytic framework of demographic transition theory of which Notestein was the most modern formulator and on the historical experience of the West he presents an outline of the social and economic factors that explain the emergence of rapid population growth as a major factor affecting the development performance and prospects of poor countries. He argues the need for lowering the birth rates through public policies fashioned to serve that end not as a substitute for modernization but as a means of hastening the process of modernization. The rapid extension of family planning will not carry the threat of race suicide. By hastening development it will in the long run make possible larger rather than smaller populations. In the immediate future a 50% reduction of birth rates would still leave most developing countries with higher rates of population growth than those of Europes 19th century. The practical possibilities are only those of keeping rates of population increase from being very large. Rapid development of the economies in the emerging nations is essential for the health education and prosperity of the existing population. It is still more critically important for the maintenance of the much larger population that the future will almost certainly bring. It is in the nature of society that this process of economic modernization would reduce the death rate before it reduces the birth rate and under modern conditions the resulting population growth can be very rapid and sustained for decades unless positive measures are taken. Such rapid growth greatly complicates the process of modernization because the investment required to meet the needs of added numbers reduces the investment available to bring per capita gains. A rapid reduction of the birth rate in the early stages of modernization would speed the process of development by providing more capital per person and by building a population in which a larger proportion of the total is in the ages from which the labor force is drawn. It is the nations that face the difficulties of economic growth that are expressing major interest in attempting to reach a solution to population growth. India was the 1st major government to adopt a national policy of limiting growth by reducing the birth rate. In China the government is making a major effort to lift the age at marriage and to spread contraception and sterilization throughout the population. The worlds 5th and 6th largest countries Indonesia and Pakistan have divergent policies. Ceylon has begun a pilot project with private help. It is in the smaller countries of Asia however that efforts to spread the practice of birth control have been successful such as in Korea Hong Kong Taiwan and Singapore. (summaries in FRE SPA)