The Population of China

Abstract

80% of Chinas population live in the rural areas of the country and the demographic trends in this very large social group have a considerable significance for both China and the world as a whole. In many economically developing countries the rate of population growth has fallen faster among the educated urban population than it has among the peasantry. The peasant economy encourages population growth: many children provide many hands to work the small plot of land the typical peasant family owns or rents. Children also ensure that the land will be worked when the parents are old. Although the collectivization of agriculture that followed the Communist revolution removed much of the economic incentive for large families on the farm the rate of population growth remained high because profamily cultural attitudes persisted. Not until after the death of Mao Zedong in 1976 was the control of demographic growth pursued vigorously as an official policy. The political structure of Chinese society is such that policy decisions can be quickly implemented. Consequently the rate of population increase has declined faster in China that it has in any other large economically developing country. Contrary to the experience of many developing countries the reductions in the birthrate have occurred in rural areas as well as in the cities. The decrease in the rate at which the population is growing is on the whole beneficial to a developing country a rapid decline in the birthrate has significant social costs. The official position of the Chinese government is that the largest population China can support is 1.2 billion or 200 million more than the population counted in the most recent census (taken in 1982). A table shows projections of the effect of an immediate birthrate decrease to a level commensurate with an ultimate constant population of 1.2 billion. The projections show that such a rate could have at least 2 implications: in the middle of the 21st century there will be a disadvantageous distribution of the Chinese population according to age and a relatively small group of workers will be supporting a large group of retired people; and if China is to achieve a constant population of 1.2 billion Chinese married couples must average fewer than 2 children for much of the 1990s. The projections present Chinese officials with some difficult choices. The well defined limits of agriculture are the strongest motivation for family planning in China but other considerations have strengthened the collective will to limit population growth. 1 of the disadvantages resulting from a high rate of population growth is the presence of many young people who need jobs. The problem is exacerbated by the shortage of jobs suitable for educated people. Along with the dilemmas of resources and employment uncontrolled population growth could aggravate tensions between the city and the country. In addition to arguments favoring population control birth control devices and rewards and punishments are delivered through the administrative apparatus.