Abstract

In order to achieve stringent greenhouse gas emission reductions, a transition of our entire energy system from fossil to renewable resources needs to be designed. Such an energy transition brings two main challenges: most renewables generate variable electric energy, yet most demand is currently not electric (carrier mismatch) and does not always manifest at the same time as supply (temporal mismatch). Integrating multiple energy infrastructures can address both challenges by using the synergy between different energy carriers; building on existing infrastructure, while allowing a robust and flexible integration of the new.This paper proposes an optimization framework for long-term, multi-period investment planning of urban energy systems in an integrated manner. We formulate it as a mixed-integer linear program, combining a capacitated facility location with a multi-dimensional, capacitated network design problem. It includes generation and network expansion planning as well as interconnections between networks and storage infrastructure for each energy system. It can incorporate pathway effects like techno-economic developments, policy measures, and weather variations. The intended use is to support urban decision makers with long-term investment planning, though it can be tailored to fit other geographical or temporal scales.We demonstrate the model using two cases based on an average city in The Netherlands, which wants to reduce its CO2-emissions with 95% by 2050. In the first case, we include explicit carbon-emission constraints to study the effects of the carrier mismatch. In the second case, we implement interannual weather variations to analyze the temporal mismatch. The results give valuable insights into the energy transition design strategy for urban decision makers. They also show the future potential, as well as the computational challenges of the optimization framework.

Highlights

  • In 2015 at the United Nations climate change conference in Paris, COP15, the governments of 195 countries agreed that stronger and more ambitious climate action was urgently required [1]

  • The proposed framework for multi-energy design investment planning translates to a mixed-integer linear optimization problem (MILP), combining a capacitated facility location problem with a multidimensional, capacitated network design problem

  • In the extreme scenario of a 100% reduction in 2030, the costs more than double

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Summary

Introduction

In 2015 at the United Nations climate change conference in Paris, COP15, the governments of 195 countries agreed that stronger and more ambitious climate action was urgently required [1]. To effectively address the challenges of the energy transition, we simultaneously consider a multi-energy perspective to optimally combine the strengths of each energy carrier and reach stringent climate goals; a long-term, multi-period perspective to effectively help decision makers design their energy transition pathway; and an urban perspective to create actionable policies with a clear impact. The framework includes investment decisions on energy distribution networks, energy conversion, energy supply, and energy storage assets, and it can incorporate existing assets (i.e. a brownfield situation) It allows for incorporating pathway effects like techno-economic development factors, climate policies, as well as weather variations. It allows urban decision makers to design their energy transition pathway in a cost-efficient manner, ensuring alignment with their forecasted scenarios, existing assets, and climate goals We defined this optimization framework as a novel application of the facility location network design problem. We demonstrate how the framework can help an urban decision maker plan for the challenges of an increasingly renewable energy supply, with a transitioning energy demand

Mathematical modeling framework
Model notation
Model formulation
Model complexity
Model demonstration
Demonstration cases
Mathematical setup
Modeling setup
Carrier mismatch
Temporal mismatch
Discussion and conclusions
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