Abstract

On a global scale, limited financing for the development and operation of infrastructure projects has pushed authorities to encourage private investors to enter public-private partnerships (PPPs). In this respect, procurement of infrastructure projects such as bridges, water plants, airports, and roads has been adopted through PPPs. This has also applied to the oil-rich country of Libya which experienced severe economic and political problems in the past decade. This paper presents a systematic framework for risk assessment and appraisal of PPPs infrastructure projects. This framework is capable of identifying probable adverse effects that represent key influential factors on the private sector in a socio-economic environment and related to key performance indicators (KPIs) in order to assess the operational efficiency in developing and financing infrastructure projects. This framework proposes a new integrated system that comprises of the following: fault tree, artificial neural networks, and analytical network process. The aim of this system is to ensure sustainable availability of finances that are considered essential for the development of PPPs infrastructure projects in Libya. considering different alternative funding models, it suggests a means of auditing PPPs structure to carry out improved performance for PPPs projects in Libya.

Highlights

  • With a growing interest for infrastructure and the enormous cost of development and activity, governments are seeking private funds to finance water plants, electric stations, health care projects, and gas pipelines and to enhance the subsequent services (Alasad, Motawa 2015)

  • The presented RAA3P system proposes an adoption of the project’s scheme as a result of alerting to each party involved in private partnerships (PPPs) projects to adjust their missing variables and renegotiate according to the given alternatives resulted from the analytical network process (ANP) model in order to obtain optimal return on investment

  • –– The presented RAA3P system provides a systematic framework for risk assessment of PPPs infrastructure projects

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Summary

Introduction

With a growing interest for infrastructure and the enormous cost of development and activity, governments are seeking private funds to finance water plants, electric stations, health care projects, and gas pipelines and to enhance the subsequent services (Alasad, Motawa 2015) In this respect, public-private partnerships (PPPs) take public and private sectors closely in long term contracts. It is important to develop a system that considers risk impacts on the estimation of various projects’ attributes pertaining to internal rate of returns (IRRs) as a decision-making criterion to provide adequate assessment to risks affecting PPPs infrastructure projects and to enhance the methodology for appraising the indicators of capital investment related to projects’ performance

Proposed framework
RAA3P framework development
Data collection
Probabilistic modelling of risk using FTA
21 O4 Force Majeure
Building an ANP model
Case study
Financial
Social
Conflict of Interest
RAA3P implementation
Findings
Analysis and discussion
Conclusions
Full Text
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