Abstract
Public-private partnership (PPP)-based infrastructure projects generally face many risks and uncertainties at all stages of the project, including initial studies, design, construction, and operation. This causes many challenges such as increased costs, delays in the project and loss of materials and equipment, and so on. Given the need to use the PPP method in the development of infrastructure projects and its broad dimensions, it is important to accurately identify and evaluate the risks involved in these projects. In the present paper, the most important risks in these projects are identified by case study in PPP-based freeway projects in Iran and using the six step-by-step process of risk management based on PMBOK standard, a model for risk assessment it is developed. Also, for quantitative risk analysis, an attempt was made to determine the importance of risks and their priority in the studied projects by using fuzzy multi-criteria decision making techniques (FAHP and FTOPSIS). The results of quantitative risk analysis by FAHP method showed that first level risks in seven different categories including economic and financing risks, construction, operational, legal, political, other risks and government risks, respectively, have the greatest impact on PPP-based freeway projects. They are dedicated to themselves. Also, the results of the general ranking of the sub-criteria showed that high risk financing costs, quality of performance and standards, lack of support infrastructure have the greatest impact on these projects. Finally, the results of FTOPSIS similarity index showed that according to project experts, projects A (Isfahan-Shiraz Freeway), B (Salafchegan-Arak Freeway) and C (Khorramabad-Arak Freeway) with scores of 0.433, 0.3369 and 0.283, respectively, had a greater impact on risks, respectively. Also, the remaining risks that were jointly or at least one of the studied projects had a high impact were identified as final risks and were allocated among the various pillars of the project. The results of this research can be used as a management model in the process of risk assessment and management of PPP projects.
Highlights
A cursory look at the state of the construction industry and the participation in it in the past shows that due to factors including, emphasis on the strength of the government, high costs, long payback period, financial weakness and lack of protection legislation for the private sector, it always has been the public sector’s obligation, i.e., the government, to build the infrastructure [1]
The present study aimed to identify the various risks in the imple mentation of these types of projects and develop a pattern of identifi cation, evaluation, and risk management by selecting the private partnership (PPP)-based infrastructure projects in Iran
Given the model was not comprehensively proposed in the previous studies, and it provides a practical solution for implementing risk management in infrastructure projects, the present research is a basic-applied study, because the research must be basic in the part of the research which concerns the theoretical issues and theoretical analysis of the risks identified in PPP infrastructure projects and aims to extract an overall pattern of risk prioritization by reasoning and analysis, applicable for project-based organizations
Summary
A cursory look at the state of the construction industry and the participation in it in the past shows that due to factors including, emphasis on the strength of the government, high costs, long payback period, financial weakness and lack of protection legislation for the private sector, it always has been the public sector’s obligation, i.e., the government, to build the infrastructure [1]. The term public-private partnership was originated in the United States and associated with the joint provision of funds by the private and public sectors for educational programs, which later expanded to providing similar funds for public utilities in the 1950s [5]. This method became more widely used and was dedicated to public-private in vestments for urban renewal in the 1960s [4]. In the field of international development, it refers to the implementation of joint initiatives by the government, relief agencies, and the private sector in the general advancement of economic development [5] Many of these are described as policy-based or program–based public-private partnerships [9]. The following are the main features and components of the PPP approach [2,5]:
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