Fractional-Order SEIQRDP Model for Simulating the Dynamics of COVID-19 Epidemic.

Mohamed A Bahloul,Taous-Meriem Laleg-Kirati,Abderrazak Chahid

doi:10.1109/ojemb.2020.3019758

Abstract

Goal: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a contagious disease caused by a newly discovered coronavirus, initially identified in the mainland of China, late December 2019. COVID-19 has been confirmed as a higher infectious disease that can spread quickly in a community population depending on the number of susceptible and infected cases and also depending on their movement in the community. Since January 2020, COVID-19 has reached out to many countries worldwide, and the number of daily cases remains to increase rapidly. Method: Several mathematical and statistical models have been developed to understand, track, and forecast the trend of the virus spread. Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered-Death-Insusceptible (SEIQRDP) model is one of the most promising epidemiological models that has been suggested for estimating the transmissibility of the COVID-19. In the present study, we propose a fractional-order SEIQRDP model to analyze the COVID-19 pandemic. In the recent decade, it has proven that many aspects in many domains can be described very successfully using fractional order differential equations. Accordingly, the Fractional-order paradigm offers a flexible, appropriate, and reliable framework for pandemic growth characterization. In fact, due to its non-locality properties, a fractional-order operator takes into consideration the variables’ memory effect, and hence, it takes into account the sub-diffusion process of confirmed and recovered cases. Results–The validation of the studied fractional-order model using real COVID-19 data for different regions in China, Italy, and France show the potential of the proposed paradigm in predicting and understanding the pandemic dynamic. Conclusions: Fractional-order epidemiological models might play an important role in understanding and predicting the spread of the COVID-19, also providing relevant guidelines for controlling the pandemic.

Highlights

Covid-19 is an illness caused by the new coronavirus that was first identified in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, late December 2019 [1]
These results show the usefulness of the fractional-order derivative operator in fitting real data of the pandemic
It is clear in all the figures that we present the trend of the epidemiological dynamic till May 8th, which is the future concerning the date of simulation April, 29th

Summary

Introduction

Covid-19 is an illness caused by the new coronavirus that was first identified in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, late December 2019 [1]. COVID-19 is a higher infectious disease that can readily spread in a community population depending on the number of susceptible and infected cases and depending on their movement in the community. A person becomes infected by coming into close contact (about 6 feet or two arm lengths) with a person who has COVID-19. He may be able to get the virus by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and by touching his mouth, nose, or eyes. Ideal interventions to control the spread include: Clean and disinfect frequently touched surfaces, wash hands often for at least 20 seconds, quarantine, isolation, increase home confinement, promoting the wearing of face masks, travel restrictions, the closing of public space, and cancellation of events. The number of cases increased rapidly to more than 3.25 million cases, including around 231,000 deaths worldwide as of April, 30, 2020

Methods

Results

Conclusion