Fractional mathematical modeling of breast cancer stages with true data from Saudi Arabia

Abstract

This research focuses on the development, analysis, and simulation of fractional mathematical models to investigate the transmission dynamics of different phases of breast cancer. The suggested breast cancer model incorporates three often-used fractional operators in epidemiology: Caputo, Caputo–Fabrizio–Caputo, and Atangana–Baleanu–Caputo operators. In this study, the determination of the equilibrium point and its stability analysis is conducted using the Routh–Hurwitz criterion. Additionally, we examine the existence and uniqueness of solutions for the fractional system using Krasnoselskii’s and Banach fixed-point theory. Moreover, the global stability is discussed via the Ulam–Hyres criterion. Furthermore, the fractional models are being verified using reported occurrences of stage IV breast cancer among females in Saudi Arabia from 2004 to 2016. The real data is used to determine the values of the parameters that are fitted using the least squares error-minimizing methodology. Also, residuals and efficiency rates are computed for the integer as well as fractional-order models. Graphical representations are used to illustrate numerical results by examining different choices of fractional order parameters. Then, the dynamic characteristics of various stages of breast cancer are analyzed to demonstrate the impact of fractional order on breast cancer progression and how the rate of chemotherapy influences its behavior. We provide graphical results for a breast cancer model with effective parameters, resulting in fewer future incidences in the population of stages III and IV. Chemotherapy often raises the risk of cardiotoxicity, and our proposed model output reflects this. The goal of this study is to reduce the incidence of cardiotoxicity in chemotherapy patients while also increasing the pace of patient recovery. This research has the potential to significantly improve outcomes for patients and provide information on treatment strategies for breast cancer patients.