Four Circles: Comprehending the China Challenge

Abstract

Policymakers need a broad and durable framework for clearly assessing the challenges posed by China, setting priorities for dealing with them and developing effective and consistent responses and initiatives. This article offers a framework derived from Chinese leaders’ long-standing quest for control. It consists of four concentric circles, from China’s domestic order in the centre, where its pursuit of control is strongest, to its conception of an alternative to the US-led liberal international order in the outermost circle, where it is weakest. The second circle encompasses lands and waters that the Chinese consider unambiguously theirs, especially Taiwan and the South China Sea. The third is the Asia-Pacific region writ large, where China means to replace the United States as the leading power. Because these two circles encompass important, if not vital, US interests and obligations, yet are fixed in China’s geopolitical agenda, the potential for conflict within them is especially high.