Assessing the Risks of Conflict in the South China Sea

Abstract

In exploring hidden risks to the international system, this issue has covered a variety of functional, regional, and theoretical topics; however, with U.S. foreign policy focus shifting to Asia, it is not surprising that many authors draw their attention to the South China Sea. Marvin Ott’s “Southeast Asia’s Strategic Landscape,” Charles Doran’s “Power Cycle Theory and the Ascendance of China,” Chris Ford’s “Soft on Soft Power,” and Ian Bremmer’s interview all touch in some way on potential conflict in the South (and East) China Seas. As Sino-Taiwanese relations warm following the January 2012 re-election of Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou, who has made strengthening ties with the mainland a priority of his administration, the South China Sea will become the preeminent focus of U.S.-China watchers who study potential military clashes between the two countries. Given the shifting attention to the issue, the risk of conflict in the South China Sea is not particularly “hidden.” Indeed, over the last two years, the United States has paid increasing attention to the region, most evident by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s reassertion of U.S. interests there at the ASEAN ministerial meetings in Hanoi in July 2010 1 and President Obama’s emphasis of the same concerns at the November 2011 East Asia Summit. 2 The essential dynamics are well-covered by popular media and clearly understood from traditional theories of international relations: a rising power, China, competes with a status quo hegemon, the United States, for influence in a complicated multipolar regional context across a variety of military, diplomatic, and economic fronts. The South China Sea is particularly well-suited for such competition as, beyond its large economic and strategic importance as a global crossroads, it is a source of vast, untapped natural resources. Though the overarching risk of tension in the South China Sea is not hidden, policymakers in Washington should be clear on the actual dangers posed by conflict as they begin to consider future U.S. competition with