Fossil Energy in the Framework of Sustainable Development: Analysis of Prospects and Development of Forecast Scenarios

Yuriy Leonidovich Zhukovskiy,Valeriia Vladimirovna Starshaia,Daria Evgenievna Batueva,Bernard Gil,Alexandra Dmitrievna Buldysko

doi:10.3390/en14175268

Abstract

In the next 20 years, the fossil energy must become a guarantor of the sustainable development of the energy sector for future generations. Significant threats represent hurdles in this transition. This study identified current global trends in the energy sector and the prospects for the development of energy until 2035. The importance of risk assessment in scenario forecasting based on expert judgments was proven. Three contrasting scenarios, #StayHome, #StayAlone, and #StayEffective, for the development of fossil energy, all based on comprehensive analysis of global risks by expert survey and factor analysis, were developed. It was concluded that fossil energy is mandatory with integration of advanced technologies at every stage of the production of traditional energy and of renewable energy as an integral part of the modern energy sector. Based on the results of the study, nine ambitious programs for the development of sustainable energy are presented. They require the creation and the utilization of a single interactive digital platform adapted to this purpose. It is a passport mandatory for the flexible interaction of energy production, its transmission, and its consumption in the perspective of having a future sustainable, reliable, and secured energy sector.

Highlights

This study focused on the technologies that are mandatory for the sustainable development of fossil energy
Based on the data obtained during the survey, the risks were grouped into nine components
The study demonstrated the importance of analyzing the risks existing in the energy sector for conducting scenario forecasting

Summary

Introduction

Developing countries that are rich in natural resources face vital challenges of economic diversification, resource replenishment [1], air quality maintenance, public health, and growing demands [2,3] for cheap energy and water resources. All of the above can be summarized as critical factors for energy and the environment [2]. The whole energy sector must become the guarantor of a “sustainable development” for our future generations as a basic substrate for meeting their needs. Achieving this can be difficult if states do not sufficiently support some specific sustainable development goals (SDGs) [4,5].

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Conclusion