Formation of the forecasting model for Ukrainian – German migration system

Abstract

The article presents results of the research on the population's migration activity in the context of the formation of a new migration system (MS), such as the Ukrainian-German one. It has been determined that the expansion of the scale and diversification of the composition of migratory flows intensify their influence on contemporary demographic, socio-economic and ethno-cultural processes both in the donor country and in the recipient country. It is proved that the consideration of the migration component has become necessary in developing the demographic, social and economic, foreign and ethno-cultural strategies of the country's development. Authors present a technique to construct forecasts of migration activity in the conditions of formation of the Ukrainian-German migration system. It is based on a three-stage algorithm: 1) forecasting the size and structure of the population of Germany and Ukraine; 2) forecasting macroeconomic indicators and conditions of labour markets of Germany and Ukraine; and 3) forecasting the volumes of potential migration in the conditions of formation of the investigated MS (Ukraine-Germany). Based on the projection of the German population by 2060, and taking into account variations in the volume of immigration in the country, authors prove that a significant deformation of the age structure of the indigenous population as a result of the nation's 'hyper-aging' may lead to a demographic collapse, which makes it impossible for the country's economic growth to result in shortages of high-skilled workforce in the labour market. The arguments presented confirm the hypothesis of the dependence of the German economy on the immigration flows of human resources. On the basis of the constructed economic-mathematical model, the authors estimated the probable variants of further development of the UGMS for medium-term (by 2025) and long-term (until 2030) perspectives under different developmental scenarios (the benchmark, optimistic, tendentious, and pessimistic ones). The investigation has shown that during 2025-2030 in Ukraine, the demographic and, as a result, labour-saving crisis, caused by the emigration of human resources in young and middle age, coupled with low fertility rates, will aggravate in Ukraine. In this context, the feasibility of constructing a new migration policy with the effect of replacing the workforce has been substantiated. This publication is prepared withing the research project on "Migration activity of the population of the Carpathian region" (state registration No 0119U002010).