The rates of budget-forming taxes in Ukraine: is a radical reduction advisable?

Abstract

In the context of Russian Federation's full-scale war against Ukraine, the idea of conducting a radical tax reform in our country, which would provide for the establishment of corporate income tax, personal income tax and VAT rates at the same level of 10%, has become widespread, and later transformed into the idea of an "anti-corruption" tax reform. According to the reform’s supporters, lowering the rates of the main taxes will ensure the de-shadowing of the economy, destroy the grounds for corruption, and on this basis will lead to an increase in tax revenues, if not in the first year of the reform, then at least in the short term. Optimistic forecasts regarding the fiscal consequences of a radical reduction in the rates of main taxes in Ukraine are based on simplified ideas about the impact of the size of tax rates on the scale of the shadow economy and tax revenues. The purpose of the article is to refute these ideas by revealing, using the results of theoretical and empirical studies, the ambiguous nature of the relationship between tax rates and the size of the shadow economy and tax revenues. A comparative analysis of the rates of VAT, personal income tax, corporative income tax and social security contributions in Ukraine and the EU countries has been carried out, which allows to establish that none of the EU countries has ever introduced low rates for all major taxes and social security contributions, reduced the VAT rate to the level of minimum EU requirements (15%), or refused to finance pension payments through social security contributions, distributing their burden between employers and employees. The author analyzes the impact of tax rates, tax burden and other factors on the level of the shadow economy and establishes why lower tax rates do not guarantee a reduction in the scale of informal activities. The absence of a direct link between the size of tax rates and corruption is substantiated. Based on the analysis of the arithmetic and economic effects of tax rate cuts, the author determines their ambiguous impact on tax revenues. A comparative analysis has been made of the fiscal efficiency of the taxes whose rates are proposed to be reduced and of the compensating taxes, and the impossibility of compensating budget losses by increasing these taxes is substantiated. The author concludes about the high fiscal risks of a radical reduction in the rates of budget-forming taxes in general and the impossibility of such a reduction during the war.