Abstract
As a new development form for evaluating the regional water resources carrying capacity, forewarning regional water resources of their carrying capacities is an important adjustment and control measure for regional water security management. Up to now, most research on this issue have been qualitative analyses, with a lack of quantitative research. For this reason, an index system for forewarning regional water resources of their carrying capacities and grade standards, has been established in Anhui Province, China, in this paper. Subjective weights of forewarning indices can be calculated using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, based on an accelerating genetic algorithm, while objective weights of forewarning indices can be calculated by using a projection pursuit method, based on an accelerating genetic algorithm. These two kinds of weights can be combined into combination weights of forewarning indices, by using the minimum relative information entropy principle. Furthermore, a forewarning model of regional water resources carrying capacity, based on entropy combination weight, is put forward. The model can fully integrate subjective and objective information in the process of forewarning. The results show that the calculation results of the model are reasonable and the method has high adaptability. Therefore, this model is worth studying and popularizing.
Highlights
With the continuous development of the economy and the increase in population in China, the contradiction between the rapid and steady development of the economy, the health of the ecological environment and the sustainable development of water resources has become increasingly prominent [1]
The water resources carrying capacity is the largest scale for the development of economy and society that can be supported by regional water resources in a particular area and the specific historical stage, which is based on the designed available water resources, the predictable technology and the development level of economic and social factors, and takes into account the principles of sustainable development and a good ecological environment
Zhou et al calculated the comprehensive score of the water resources carrying capacity in Guiyang City, according to the three principal components of the water resources carrying capacity that were selected by the principal component analysis and their weights were calculated by entropy [4]
Summary
With the continuous development of the economy and the increase in population in China, the contradiction between the rapid and steady development of the economy, the health of the ecological environment and the sustainable development of water resources has become increasingly prominent [1]. The water resources carrying capacity is the largest scale for the development of economy and society that can be supported by regional water resources in a particular area and the specific historical stage, which is based on the designed available water resources, the predictable technology and the development level of economic and social factors, and takes into account the principles of sustainable development and a good ecological environment. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the factors affecting the regional water resources carrying capacity, the forewarning index system and corresponding grade standard of regional water resources carrying capacity have been set up. Zhao et al analyzed the water resources carrying capacity in Ningxia, during 2004–2014, by using the principal component analysis and factor analysis Based on these analyses, the water resources utilization index and classification criteria in different areas of Ningxia were obtained [7]. The forewarning model of the water resources carrying capacity was established according to the corresponding relationship between the “non-warning” membership degree, and the comprehensive forewarning index, of the standard grade sample value series
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