Forest to Mill Timber Price Trends and Volatility for Mississippi Timber Products

Abstract

AbstractWe examined timber price trends along the Mississippi roundwood supply chain. Quarterly statewide data from Timber Mart-South for pine sawtimber, pine pulpwood, mixed hardwood sawtimber, and pulpwood were obtained covering 1992 to 2018. Prices for stumpage, delivered logs, and timber conversion—measured as the difference between delivered wood and stumpage—were analyzed across products for the 27-year series, as well as three equally spaced 9-year periods (Period 1, 1992 to 2000; Period 2, 2001 to 2009; Period 3, 2010 to 2018). Flat delivered wood prices, increased rates for timber conversion, and declining pine sawtimber and pulpwood stumpage prices were revealed over the long term. Hardwood product prices, however, increased across their supply chains. Prices have generally become less volatile, particularly from Period 2 to Period 3, indicating an increasing degree of price homogeneity within each product's market. The exception to this was pine sawtimber, suggesting resource, locational, and/or market differences may have emerged for this product. The hardwood price trends supported, as appropriate, considering silvicultural options to allow this resource's continued growth. Declining price expectations for pine products call into question any strictly financial rationale for extending rotation length.