Abstract
A new probabilistic criterion for forest fire danger and a new methodology for determining the probability of forest fires taking into account thunderstorm activity and the level of anthropogenic load in a controlled area are considered. The results of a parametric study of the dependence of probability on meteorological conditions, thunderstorm activity, and anthropogenic load are also presented. The fire situation corresponds to the statistics of fire accidents in the territory of the Timiryazevskiy forestry of Tomsk region.
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