Forest fire danger ratings in the 2040s for northeastern China

Abstract

The average temperature of northeastern China is expected to increase 2.22 and 2.55°C under two scenarios selected from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), i.e., A2 and B2, during the 2040s (2041–2050), which will have an impact on fire activities in those areas. We calculated the output of regional climate models, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) on a scale of 50 km × 50 km. Meteorological data and fire weather index were interpolated to a scale of 1 km × 1 km by using ANUSPLIN software. The results show that the model of Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) had the ability to provide good temperature and precipitation estimates of the study area in the baseline period, by simulation. In the 2040s the mean FWI values of the study area will increase during most of the fire seasons under both selected scenarios, compared with the baseline period. Under scenario B2 the peak fire season will appear in advance. The changes of FWI ratio (2×CO2/1×CO2) show that the potential burned areas will increase 20% under scenario B2 and lightly increase under scenario A2 in 2040s. The days of high, very high and extreme fire danger classes will add 5 and 18 d under scenarios A2 and B2, respectively. It suggests adapting the climate change through improving fuel management and enhancing the fighting abilities.