Abstract
BackgroundChronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is currently the fifth leading cause of death in Australia, and there are marked differences in mortality trends between men and women. In this study, we have sought to model and forecast age related changes in COPD mortality over time for men and women separately over the period 2006-2025.MethodsAnnual COPD death rates in Australia from 1922 to 2005 for age groups (50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, 85+) were used. Functional time series models of age-specific COPD mortality rates for men and women were used, and forecasts of mortality rates were modelled separately for men and women.ResultsFunctional time series models with four basis functions were fitted to each population separately. Twenty-year forecasts were computed, and indicated an overall decline. This decline may be slower for women than for men. By age, we expect similar rates of decline in men over time. In contrast, for women, forecasts for the age group 75-79 years suggest less of a decline over time compared to younger age groups.ConclusionsBy using a new method to predict age-specific trends in COPD mortality over time, this study provides important insights into at-risk age groups for men and women separately, which has implications for policy and program development.
Highlights
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is currently the fifth leading cause of death in Australia, and there are marked differences in mortality trends between men and women
Data The annual COPD death rates (1922-2005) for the age groups (50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70- 74, 75-79, 80-84, 85+) were obtained from the General Record of Incidence of Mortality (GRIM) books maintained by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare [4]
The COPD mortality trends for men first began to rise during the 1950s, with the maximum mortality rates for the age group 80-84 being in 1980
Summary
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is currently the fifth leading cause of death in Australia, and there are marked differences in mortality trends between men and women. Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), including chronic bronchitis and emphysema, is currently the fifth leading cause of death in Australia. It was responsible for 31.2 male and 16.3 female deaths per 100,000 population (age-standardized) in 2005 [1]. COPD is the only major condition for which the burden of disease (as measured at the population level) is continuing to increase with an ageing population, which is at a higher risk of developing COPD [2] This is because COPD results in a progressive respiratory disability, a substantial impairment in the quality of life and frequent hospital admissions.
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