Abstract
Carbon management is a strategic priority and organizations need to forecast carbon for that. We aim to find out the best ARIMA-GARCH model for forecasting conditional return and volatility of European Union Allowance (EUA) for all three phases of European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and the Rolled Over series. We use European Climate Exchange Dec 2007, Dec 2012, Dec 2015 expiry and the Rolled Over Dec 2015 expiry future contracts of EUA. The previous studies in this area have focused on a particular subset of EUA data and do not take care of the multicollinearities. We take EUA data from all three phases and the Rolled Over series, adopt principal component analysis to eliminate multicollinearities and then fit GARCH models for comprehensive analysis. The study establishes that the best models for predicting EUA phase I, II, III and Rolled Over series are asymmetric GARCH models.
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