Forecasting the Volatility of Tuna Fish Prices in North Sumatra using the ARCH Method in the Period January - April 2024

Abstract

Tuna (Euthynnus affinis) is one of the most important fisheries commodities in Indonesia with significant economic value, especially in its contribution to fisheries export revenue. However, the price of tuna experiences significant fluctuations that can affect local and national economic stability. This study analyzes the daily price fluctuations of tuna in the North Sumatra market from January 1, 2024 to April 29, 2024 using a time series analysis approach. Daily price data were collected and analyzed to identify existing price patterns and volatility. The Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model was selected to address the heteroscedasticity in the data, which suggests that the volatility of tuna prices can be well predicted based on past price behavior. The analysis steps include identifying the optimal ARCH model using the Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF), as well as testing parameter significance and normality assumptions to validate the model fit. The results show that the ARMA (1,0,0) model is the optimal one to model the price volatility of yellow tuna with the MAPE obtained of 2.382. compared to the ARMA-ARCH method with the MAPE value obtained of 2,747. Because it still contains heteroskedasticity effects, even though the results are good, the prediction results do not closely match the original data. The model is effective in improving price forecasting accuracy, which is important to support decision-making in risk management and economic planning in the fisheries sector. The findings contribute to understanding the dynamics of the yellowtail market and optimizing strategies for fisheries management.